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Build a simple forecast from units, price, conversion and timing. Test a downside scenario and distinguish orders, invoicing, and cash collection. Fictional data.
Four guided lessons, hands-on decision sequences, practice checks, and final decisions. Build a plan, test it, then examine the reasoning. Progress stays on this device only.
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After this lesson: Calculate revenue from a transparent unit assumption.
A forecast should show units times net selling price, then separate channels with different price and volume assumptions. Historical performance and signed orders can inform a baseline; a goal alone does not make it likely.
A bar line expects 2,000 wholesale units at $8 net and 300 direct units at $16 net. Forecast revenue is $16,000 + $4,800 = $20,800 before returns or discounts.
Use the briefing above. Select the actions in the order you would take them, then run the sequence.
Apply it: Separate a target from the model that supports it.
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After this lesson: Use stage evidence without treating every lead as an order.
For a simple planning estimate, stage-weighted opportunities can help model uncertainty, but probabilities are assumptions and correlated deals can fail together. Track timing, approval, and historical conversion. Keep a separate committed-order line.
Ten similar qualified opportunities worth $2,000 each at an evidence-based 25% win assumption produce an expected planning value of $5,000; this is not $5,000 cash or a guarantee.
Use the briefing above. Select the actions in the order you would take them, then run the sequence.
Apply it: Avoid counting pipeline at full value in the cash plan.
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After this lesson: Move expected cash into the period it is collected.
A purchase order, invoice, and bank receipt can occur in different periods. A cash forecast should use expected collection dates and account for credit terms, deductions, and late payments. Do not add the same sale twice.
A retailer receives goods in January and is invoiced $20,000 on 60-day terms. The revenue and receivable may be recorded earlier, but the cash plan uses the expected receipt date, subject to payment behavior.
Use the briefing above. Select the actions in the order you would take them, then run the sequence.
Apply it: Pick which period a retailer payment belongs in.
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After this lesson: Change one driver and quantify the consequence.
A base forecast needs a downside. Reduce volume, delay a customer, or raise cost, then compare gross contribution and cash low points. The scenario is a decision tool, not a prediction of certainty.
Base forecast is 2,000 wholesale units at $8. A 25% volume shortfall means 1,500 units and $12,000 wholesale revenue, $4,000 less than base before any cost changes.
Use the briefing above. Select the actions in the order you would take them, then run the sequence.
Apply it: Decide when to scale back inventory after orders fall behind plan.
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Three new scenarios check what you retained. A missed answer opens a worked explanation and a reworded question.
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Original Aim High Hero explanations and fictional exercises. The external source provides subject reference and does not endorse this course.
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